Opinion: New Delhi's Air Quality Can Choke Its Geopolitical Influence

In an ongoing hearing, the Supreme Court of India has decried the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) for not serving its purpose. The Commission was set up in 2021 through an ordinance after the Air Quality Management in National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas Act 2021 was introduced in the Lok Sabha on July 30, 2021. What the apex court has observed is that three years, millions of dollars, and several opportunities have gone down the drain while India's capital, yet again, prepares to choke.

People of New Delhi, policymakers and plebeians alike, seem to have eased into the city's toxicity: polluters continue to pollute without any fear of penalty or punishment, and the wealthy find ways to avoid being in the city during the choke months - November to February. The world, however, is watching the poison in Delhi's air with a bated breath.

The 'Hardship Allowance'

Earlier this year, New Delhi was adjudged to be the most polluted capital city in the world, according to the sixth Annual World Air Quality Report. The city's air has PM2.5 concentrations that are more than ten times the WHO annual guideline. This factoid on paper reads straight out of a dystopian work. The US Department of State categorises New Delhi as a city that merits a "Post (Hardship) Differential" allowance. The hardship allowance for being posted to India's capital is pegged at 25% of basic compensation - the same as the bombed-out Beirut or the regional posts in Antarctica or the Arctic Circle. In 1997, this allowance used to be 10%.  

What it means on an everyday basis is even more disturbing. Despite a substantially heftier pay packet, diplomats are hesitant. Delhi is scary. It is no coincidence that most embassies and high commissions begin to show signs of thinning personnel strength post-autumn every year. The 'holiday' season starts early in New Delhi. There are two ways of reacting to this phenomenon: brushing it off as typical Global North snobbery or assessing the implications of being treated at par with a war zone.

Passing The Buck, Every Year

New Delhi's inability to control pollution is seen as a failure of the country's democratic governance. It is, after all, commonsensical to ask how robust the mechanisms of the world's largest democracy are when they cannot ensure even clean air in the national capital region. What the world witnesses is a perpetual passing-the-buck game every year while hazardous conditions continue to jeopardise people's health and livelihoods.

India's biggest calling card in the global arena is its unwavering commitment to democracy. This is what sets New Delhi apart from other capitals like Beijing or Abu Dhabi in terms of promise. The failure to check the pollution hazard becomes a stick with which to beat India's democracy. Can we afford this undermining?

Let's take the geopolitics aspect of environmental deterioration a little further. In 2010, the Middle East region saw a sharp decline in air pollution levels, becoming an outlier. Reduced economic activity due to sanctions and conflicts was cited as the primary driver for this phenomenon. For example, the UN-backed sanctions on Iran led to lower emissions from oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Strife in Syria precluded any industrial growth, leading to a significant improvement in the air quality. How long before the rich and the powerful get certain ideas on tackling environmental deterioration? 

India Can't Just Wish Away The Problem

India has been promoting itself as a powerful player in the global security gambit. It seems to be getting almost too sure of its importance. However, when it comes to environmental policy, European and North American countries might want to weather the geopolitical risks. A 2023 study published by the Journal of Environmental Management indicates that while "geopolitical risks significantly influence environmental policy" in many EU member states, "environmental policy causes geopolitical risks only in Latvia". The message is clear. Perceived geopolitical risks are unlikely to undermine environmental policies. Is India certain of cushioning itself against this altered approach that renders it not so important anymore?

Already, India is being decried as one of the world's most significant polluters. Our prickliness and denunciation of such proclamations cannot mitigate their reputational damage.  

There are further complications to New Delhi's air issue. While we are somewhat fortunate to have even more polluted neighbours - Bangladesh and Pakistan - a diplomatic event with the potential to become territorial and military cannot be ruled out. Recently, the South Korean government monitored and quantified the influence of border-crossing particulate matter from China. This is literally taking the fight to atmospheric levels. Pakistan, along similar lines, blames the farm fires of Punjab (and Haryana) directly impacting Lahore's air quality.

New Delhi can continue to sit and watch the many fires in its backyard without changing the status quo. However, it should be prepared for the consequences such a signalling may entail. 

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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