India has over 50 percent chances of normal monsoon this year

Rainfall is likely to be normal this year, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday. Coming out with the first Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2019, Skymet said, "Our first guidance for Monsoon 2019 is that there is more than 50 percent chance of normal monsoon. We will come out with another update in the first week of April."

According to the Chief Executive Officer of Skymet Weather, Jatin Singh, "The El Nino conditions were on the rise in the Pacific Ocean till December last. The temperatures are now declining, and the probability of El Nino is also falling. This will reduce to about 50 per cent by the time Monsoon arrives with a gradual decline thereafter as well. Going by the early indications, this means it is going to be devolving El Nino year."

India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June.

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